Notes From The Margin

September 24, 2007

Tropical Depression In The Atlantic? Cape Verde Storm emerging?

 

Just a short note on an emerging system in a Tropical wave that is emerging in the Atlantic. The NHC site says:

 

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 565 NM SW OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 8.5N31W. THIS LARGE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10-15 KT. A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOW MOSTLY W OF
THE CENTER FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 31W-37W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 29W-38W.
THIS IS ONE OF THE MORE CLASSIC LOOKING CAPE VERDE SYSTEMS WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. 

While nothing may emerge out of this, because of it’s position far south of us (8.5N) we should keep an eye on this one.

Marginal

Update:  Forecast models currently indicate that this storm will go north.

September 4, 2007

Hurricane Felix Update (8.00pm Monday Night)

Hurricane Felix’s winds decreased slightly today, however some restrengthening is possible before it makes landfall. The more southerly track may end up sparing Belize from the worst of the storm, however this would be at the expense of Honduras and Nicaragua.

Here’s the 8.00pm bulletin:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 032341
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
800 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FELIX APPROACHES NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.  A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA.  

AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.  

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES...
325 KM...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  FELIX IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  FELIX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE...UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL...AND
SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN EXCESS OF 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...14.5 N...80.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

September 3, 2007

Hurricane Felix – Hurricane Hunter Forced to Turn Back

Filed under: aviation,Barbados Media,Belize,blogging,Caribbean,Caricom,emergency management,hurricane — notesfromthemargin @ 2:01 pm

The monster storm that Hurricane Felix has become is so strong it forced the one of the NOAA’s hurricane hunters to abort it’s mission to investigate the storm.

In just 15 hours on Sunday, Felix jumped from a Category Two storm with winds at 160 kilometers (100 miles) per hour to a rare Category Five hurricane, the most powerful on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

The speed at which Felix reached maximum strength was one of the fastest ever recorded, Hurricane Center specialists said.

Felix was so powerful that one of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s ‘hurricane hunter’ airplanes was caught in a rapid updraft-downdraft cycle as it gathered data, the Miami Herald reported.

The violent cycle placed four times the weight of gravity on those aboard the plane.

“Four Gs can put a fair strain on the aircraft, and it also got some very heavy hail that can rip the paint off the plane,” Hurricane Center forecaster James Franklin told the newspaper.

The airplane, a modified Orion P-3 that normally carries 14 people, was ordered back to its base at Saint Croix, one of the US Virgin Islands, Franklin said.

We will continue to monitor reports on this monster storm.

Marginal

Hurricane Felix – 8.00am Update

 

Hurricane Felix remains a dangerous category 5 storm with 165mph winds. Now projected to skirt the coast of Honduras and impact Belize.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 031155
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
800 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE FELIX CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY
WESTWARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO
THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON
WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.  

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
COAST OF BELIZE.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES...
425 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 425 MILES...685 KM...
EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON
TUESDAY MORNING.

OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  FELIX IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT FELIX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE STATUS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30
MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...14.2 N...76.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Felix Tops CAT 5! (8.00pm Sunday Night)

Filed under: aviation,Barbados,Caribbean,Caricom,emergency management,hurricane,meterology — notesfromthemargin @ 12:56 am

We had a nasty surprise when we looked at the national hurricane centre’s website just now.

Hurricane Felix is now a Category 5 hurricane! Having picked our collective jaws up off the ground we went and pulled the projected track. Currently things are not looking great for Honduras or Belize. We will post regular notices on this major storm.

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Hurricane FELIX Public Advisory


Home   Public Adv   Fcst/Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Maps/Charts   Archive


000
WTNT31 KNHC 022359
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES...
625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N...72.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

August 24, 2007

Jamaica Counts The Cost – Portia counts the votes?

While the impact of Hurricane Dean may not have been as bad as that suffered under Hurricane Ivan parts of Jamaica have clearly been hit VERY hard. However the Jamaican politicians have wasted no time in politicising the aftermath of the disaster.

In her address to the nation PM Portia Simpson outlined the damage and the progress so far:

ELECTRICITY:

APPROXIMATELY 135,000 CUSTOMERS OF THE JAMAICA PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY OR OVER 20% OF THE 560,000 CUSTOMERS OF ELECTRICITY HAVE NOW HAD THEIR SERVICE RESTORED. THESE CUSTOMERS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE PARISHES OF KINGSTON AND ST ANDREW, ST JAMES, TRELAWNY, HANOVER, WESTMORELAND AND ST ANN.

WATER

IN TERMS OF WATER, 80% OF THE NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION’S WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS WERE AFFECTED BY HURRICANE DEAN. SINCE THE PASSAGE OF THE HURRICANE, WATER SUPPLY ALONG NEARLY ALL THE COASTAL AREAS FROM SAVANNA LA MAR, NEGRIL, MONTEGO BAY, FALMOUTH, OCHO RIOS, THROUGH TO PORT MARIA HAS BEEN REACTIVATED.

NEARLY ALL THE LARGEST WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS ARE NOW BACK IN OPERATION USING AVAILABLE STANDBY GENERATORS AND THROUGH POWER SUPPLIED BY THE JPS. APPROXIMATELY 50% OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY IS NOW BACK IN OPERATION.

SHELTERS

IN TERMS OF SHELTERS I CAN REPORT THAT, APPROXIMATELY HALF OF THE 5000 PERSONS WHO WERE HOUSED IN SHELTERS HAVE NOW LEFT THE SHELTERS.

ROAD NETWORK

IN TERMS OF DAMAGE TO OUR ROAD NETWORK, THE NATIONAL WORKS AGENCY REPORTED THAT SOME 379 ROADS WERE AFFECTED OF WHICH 322 HAVE BEEN CLEARED. THEY ARE STILL EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS IN NORTHERN AREAS BUT WORK IS PROGRESSING AT A RAPID AND SUSTAINED PACE.

RELIEF EFFORT

A LARGE NUMBER OF HOMES LOST ROOFS AND WERE OTHERWISE SERIOUSLY DAMAGED BY HURRICANE DEAN.

Now taking advantage of disaster is a time honoured tradition amongst West Indian politicians. You can count on Portia to visibly lead this relief effort from the front. Also you can be sure that the Jamaica government will be “generous” in relief aid.

The opposition will only be able to look on in dismay as the response to the hurricane provides a platform for the incumbent party to legitimately dispense largesse to genuinely needy people.

Marginal

 

August 21, 2007

Hurricane Dean Damage Assessment Underway – Not As Bad As It Could Have Been

Filed under: Caribbean,Caricom,Cayman Islands,hurricane,Jamaica,meterology — notesfromthemargin @ 1:17 am

On the 19th in our post Hurricane Dean – How Close will it get to Jamaica and Cayman? Maybe not as close as you think

We calculated the point of closest approach to Kingston, Montego Bay and Cayman. At the time it indicated that there was hope that things might not have been as bad as was being projected. With the storm now passed all of these points it would appear that we were right in our assessment. The strongest winds recorded in Grand Cayman were 57mph. Montego Bay did get hurricane force gusts, but it does appear that the storm left things mostly untouched. Kingston and eastern Jamaica have been impacted by hurricane force winds, and the damage assessments are still underway. However having spoken with a number of Jamaicans (who still had phone service) they have indicated that the damage is not as extensive as that experienced with Hurricane Ivan two years ago.

Reuters reports that Hurricane Dean has (so far) failed to trigger the World Bank funded hurricane insurance scheme.

WASHINGTON, Aug 20 (Reuters) – Preliminary estimates show that damage caused to Caribbean countries by Hurricane Dean had not triggered new disaster insurance introduced in February by the World Bank, a bank official said on Monday.

The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility aims to give islands immediate cash for rebuilding in the event of hurricanes or earthquakes.

CNN reported (on TV not online) that the situation was calm and that the much feared looting had not materialised, due to the curfew in effect. Also mentions of the situation returning to normal quickly have been very reassuring. Jamaica’s hotel plant in MoBay would seem to be mostly untouched.

 While Jamaica didn’t escape unscathed, it could have been a whole lot worse.

 Marginal

August 19, 2007

Hurricane Dean – How Close will it get to Jamaica and Cayman? Maybe not as close as you think!

Filed under: Caribbean,Caricom,Cayman Islands,hurricane,Jamaica — notesfromthemargin @ 8:48 pm

Found a site called StormCarib.com that has an ap that calculates the closest approach of any storm that you want to put in. I’ve been looking at the data given by the 11.00am bulletin data and some interesting things have emerged.

First the bulletin

T 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...
125 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DEAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING VERY
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

The utility gives the following information:

Results for Kingston, Jamaica (17.93N, 76.78W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.3N, 76.9W or about 40.9 miles (65.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 8.3 hours (Sunday, August 19 at 7:18PM EDT).

Results for Montego Bay, Jamaica (18.5N, 77.92W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.6N, 78.1W or about 63.5 miles (102.2 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 13.5 hours (Monday, August 20 at 0:30AM EDT).

Results for Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands (19.28N, 81.35W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.4N, 81.6W or about 63.7 miles (102.4 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 25.3 hours (Monday, August 20 at 12:18PM EDT).

Note that currently hurricane force winds extend outwards 60 miles from the center. So from this information Grand Cayman and MoBay may escape hurricane conditions completely. Kingston is going to get a hurricane, that much is assured. However the may not get the Category 4 winds that would be found around the eyewall.

Now this is the best possible interpretation of this, hurricanes get stronger and weaker and a very marginal shift to the north or south could change this completely. But it is grounds for hope.

Marginal.

Hurricane Dean – Update on Preparations for Impact

Filed under: Caribbean,Caricom,Cayman Islands,hurricane,Jamaica,meterology,United Nations — notesfromthemargin @ 11:16 am

The site reliefweb.int has issued a second update on preparations for an impending impact by Hurricane Dean

PREPAREDNESS

Jamaica

14. The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) has been advised by the Meteorological Service of Jamaica that a Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Jamaica as Hurricane Dean continues to move towards the island.

15. The ODPEM has fast-tracked its emergency response activities. The National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC) was activated on Saturday August 18. The ODPEM is advising all persons who live along the coastline or in low-lying and flood-prone areas to be on high alert to evacuate once the order is given. The ODPEM will provide the public with information on those specific areas to be evacuated, once this has been deemed necessary.The

17. UN in Jamaica has been in contact with OCHA and requested an UNDAC team of which only one member arrived in view of flights cancellation as airports were temporary closed.

18. UNICEF prepared stock supplies, 4 emergency health kits and 1,000 water containers. Copa Airlines has a flight scheduled on Wednesday 22 August and will allow space for UNICEF loads of relief items.

19. WFP has prepared food stocks in Haiti and is looking into the best way to move them to Jamaica or elsewhere if needed.

20. OFDA has mobilized teams throughout the Caribbean including in Haiti, DR, Jamaica, Belize, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua Haiti

17. Donors, NGOs, international organizations, UN agencies and MINUSTAH attended a meeting called by the Minister of Interior to discuss preparedness measures (including available stocks of emergency items, funds, etc,) taken by different partners and to share information with the Government.

18. The Government requested MINUSTAH to support the evacuation of population in at-risk areas (about 15,000 persons on the corridor Fonds Verrettes – Fonds Parisiens, West department).It was also decided to reinforce warning messages through the radio and television. Another meeting with the National System on Risk and Disaster Management will take place.

19. World Vision Regional staff in Haiti and Dominican Republic have distributed informative materials and alerted communities. Food, clean water, medicines and emergency generators have been prepositioned.

20. WHO have medicines kits ready for 40,000 persons for 3 months and a 120-persons team is on stand-by. Items are pre-positioned in Cayes and Jeremie.

21. UNICEF has pre-positioned items, notably medical equipment and water purification tabs, in Cayes.

22. Various NGOS have prepositioned relief items and personnel such as MSF Belgium, Oxfam GB, ACF, USAID, World Vision, Chemists without Borders, CRD, Care, MDM France and Action Aid. 23. The Canadian Embassy has allocated USD 50,000; the International Development Bank has allocated USD 200,000 and USAID has offered USD 250,000 for the response.

24. ICRC has mobilized Teams in Cayes and Jacmel to collect information, provide logistics support, evacuate wounded and provide chlorine tablets to health centers.

25. OCHA in Haiti will be monitoring the situation overnight. The Caribbean Disaster Response Agency (CDERA)

26. CDERA has noted the potential threat and damage that can result from the impact of this Hurricane Dean and with its Partners is finalizing actions for immediate response and support if warranted.

27. The CDERA Coordinating Unit has contacted the Director General at ODPEM in Jamaica and is working to confirm regional technical and logistics support teams to assist in the response effort.

28. Teams have been placed on standby for providing assistance to the utilities sector. The Eastern Caribbean Donor Group is also prepositioning some members of their team in Jamaica to assist the North Western Caribbean Donor Group.

29. Contact with extra regional agencies is being made to complement regional effort. The CDERA Coordinating Unit continues to monitor the impact and threat of Hurricane Dean and stands ready to provide assistance if warranted.

30. OCHA continues to closely monitor the situation, including through the Regional Office in Panama, and remains in contact, with the Resident Coordinator and will provide further updates on the situation. This situation report together with further information on ongoing emergencies is also available on the OSOCC Internet Website http://www.unocha.org/vosocc and on the OCHA Internet Website http://www.reliefweb.int/.

Dean Heads for Jamaica & Cayman – Islanders Bracing for a Category 5 Hit

Spare a thought tonight for our friends in Jamaica and Cayman who tonight are frantically preparing to take a beating from Hurricane Dean which has grown into a category 4 storm at the time of writing, and is projected to become a catastrophic category 5 storm by tomorrow. A bulletin from the  United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) an excerpt from which appears below shows some of the moves already being made even before the hurricane strikes.

FORECAST:

5. Hurricane Dean is predicted to hit the southern coast of Haiti late Saturday (18 August), and is due to hit Jamaica on Sunday (19 August), possibly strengthening to Category 4, with winds between 131 and 155 mph. It could reach Yucatan, Mexico, two days later.

6. UNDP Barbados reported that Barbados and the eastern islands are expected to be clear from the hurricane.

7. In Jamaica, the Director of ODPEM reportedly stated that predictions indicate rough estimates of 32,000- 150,000 displaced persons and up to approximately 10,000 needing temporary shelter.

PREPAREDNESS

Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency

8. Regional Response: In response to the threat posed by Hurricane Dean, the CDERA Coordinating Unit is in constant contact with the National Disaster Offices. The CDERA Coordinating Unit is urging States to ensure that all national preparedness and readiness actions are rushed to completion.

9. The CDERA Coordinating Unit internal contingency plan was activated.

10. The CDERA Coordinating Unit has contacted the Director General at ODPEM in Jamaica and is working to confirm regional technical support teams to assist as necessary.

11. A second meeting of the Eastern Caribbean Donor Group (ECDG) was convened on 17 August. Given the preliminary reports received from Dominica and Saint Lucia, it anticipates a Level One or Level two response. As a result the Rapid Needs Assessment Teams (RNAT) will not be deployed at this time.

12. The ECDG also considered the emerging threat to Jamaica and looked at options of providing support to the North Western Donor Group (NWCDG).

13. The Regional Response Mechanism remains on STANDBY, meaning that all elements of the RRM should take the necessary preparatory actions in accordance with their respective plans to ensure that a speedy and efficient response may be mounted if a full activation is declared.

United Nations

14. The United Nations has despatched an UNDAC Team to Jamaica, expected to arrive on Saturday 18 August. UNCT is working with closely with the national authorities.

It looks very grim for both islands at this point all of the models agree on a current path for a direct hit. From what we can see other countries should be readying for a massive relief effort to these islands after the storm. Cayman Islands who have only recently recovered from being devastated by Hurricane Ivan a few years ago, are probably better prepared for this storm that Jamaica, whose last major hurricane was Gilbert in 1988.

We on the margin wish our friends and fellow bloggers in Jamaica and Cayman, the best of luck and we hope to hear from you on Monday.

Marginal

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