Notes From The Margin

September 6, 2007

Is The Ansa McAl Takeover Bid Failing?

An interesting bit of news hit the press today, Ansa McAl extended the deadline on their offer for the share by another 15 days to September 21st. We on the margin would speculate that this would mean that the offer has not been taken up by many shareholders and as of the current date, if the offer was to close it would fail as a take over bid. This is not an unreasonable flight of fancy as currently they are being outbid by Neal & Massey’s $8.50 and IPL’s $8.75.

One could speculate further….

Given the environment where it seems that Island Properties Consortium is acting as a spoiler by forcing the price of the shares upwards, and where in the cases of both BNB and Brydens the minority shareholders have done better under new management, it would not be an unreasonable course of action for BS&T shareholders to hold onto their shares to see who wins the bidding war (right now NOT Ansa McAl) or just to hold on to their shares period. (most Bajan shareholders buy and hold shares anyway).

It would be highly ironic if the ultimate expression of shareholder confidence in your management ability would be for them not to sell the shares to you, because they felt you could cause the stock to appreciate after you took over the company.

(We’re sure there’s a chicken and an egg somewhere around here!)

Marginal

Advertisements

5 Comments »

  1. NFTM, I cannot follow your reasoning when you say: “It would be highly ironic if the ultimate expression of shareholder confidence in your management ability would be for them not to sell the shares to you, because they felt you could cause the stock to appreciate after you took over the company.” Perhaps you should explain your reasoning.

    Comment by Linchh — September 29, 2007 @ 1:43 pm | Reply

  2. Linchh,

    Let’s say they figure you will be successful in your takeover. But choose not to sell you their shares because they feel that their best interest will be served in having a share in a company managed by you.

    Marginal

    Comment by notesfromthemargin — October 1, 2007 @ 12:49 pm | Reply

  3. NFTM, it seems that my confusion resulted from the loose manner in which you presented your argument. Obviously, if a sufficient number of BS&T shareholders refused to sell their shares either to Neil & Massey or Ansa McAl, the takeover bid would fail and there would be no change in management. This would present a “prisoner’s dilemma” problem to those shareholders who would like to see a change in the ownership/management of BS&T, but are not willing to sell their shares to achieve that objective.

    Comment by Linchh — October 1, 2007 @ 4:23 pm | Reply

  4. my point precisely!

    Comment by notesfromthemargin — October 1, 2007 @ 5:20 pm | Reply

  5. NFTM, in your analysis you might have mentioned that the higher the price that the successful takeover bidder pays, the more drastic “efficiency” changes that management may have to make to generate future earnings per share that are satisfactory to shareholders.

    Comment by Linchh — October 1, 2007 @ 5:47 pm | Reply


RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: