Notes From The Margin

September 4, 2007

Hurricane Felix Update (8.00pm Monday Night)

Hurricane Felix’s winds decreased slightly today, however some restrengthening is possible before it makes landfall. The more southerly track may end up sparing Belize from the worst of the storm, however this would be at the expense of Honduras and Nicaragua.

Here’s the 8.00pm bulletin:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 032341
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
800 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FELIX APPROACHES NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.  A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA.  

AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.  

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES...
325 KM...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  FELIX IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  FELIX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE...UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL...AND
SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN EXCESS OF 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...14.5 N...80.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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