Notes From The Margin

July 3, 2007

The four ring circus that BS&T has become….

Well, let’s see… we have what was a fairly routine merger (if there is such a thing) that was planned over the last how many ever years. Suddenly we have Ansa McAl coming in with an outright takeover offer, we have Colin Brewer and Tony Hoyos jumping in, we even have Trevor Clarke talking about making an offer.  In the interim we have every blog, call in programe gadfly, and every politician commenting about what the would or wouldn’t do. Interestingly the PM is probably the quietest person on the island in this whole mess. (other than making some very general comments from the Caricom podium)

My thoughts on this…

1. Look for Neal & Massey to launch an outright takeover bid. They already own a large block of shares and would have a relatively easy path to get a controlling interest.

2. Ansa McAl will raise it’s offer. They are big enough that they can afford it, and the asset valuation of BS&T is still far higher than their opening offer.

3. Island Properties remains a dark horse in the race. They are a sentimental favourite, but they need to make an offer for more than just a million shares to make it happen.  If the rumour mill is to be believed, they have a sponsor (a bajan one) behind them. Guys, those of us on the Margin wish you good luck and hope you pull it off. (if for no other reason that it would be fun to watch you run BS&T aggressively)

4. Trevor Clarke…… hmmn maybe I’ll come back to this one.

5. I realise that the silly season is lurking out there but the opposition’s position on this is laughable. How would they undo the deal? If a shareholder wants to sell his or her shares how does government get into it? And what signal does that send on foreign investment? There are some very bright people in the DLP, this demagoguery is unworthy of them.

One thing is for sure, this is far from over, and will be the source of much conversation on the cocktail circuit over the coming weeks.  I’m sure it will provide fertile ground for the bloggers as well.

As most of us have no shares, we’ll just look on from the margins.

Marginal

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